Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

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An SQUERRILz
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Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Post by An SQUERRILz » Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:25 am

I did a study and it was good.

Summary of matches at bzbattleground over the last four months:
1.8 official matches per day
46% of matches are 20 minutes
102 unique players have offi'd
Red win rate is 45%, purple is 50% [Slime says purple bullets harder to see]

Quiz: Here are some extra statistics graphs, you have to guess what they are of. Think statistics, things that would be interesting to know and are easy to calculate.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

I made a website http://gu.zapto.org/ to predict the outcome of GU offi and FMs. This is a glimpse of the rating system I created, SQelo (read more background at http://forums.bzflag.org/viewtopic.php? ... 75#p166289). It has scored 67% on over a hundred real matches. If you don't think 67% is very good then I challenge you to take a match prediction quiz. (Consider that draws can't really be predicted, technically you must predict the same thing for the same matchup, many re-matches have different outcomes such that even swaying by 4 caps is common [hint graph], lots of new players who are allergic to photos...)

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sn0w_m0nkey
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Re: Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Post by sn0w_m0nkey » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:58 pm

That is some very cool work AS!
oi!

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Snake12534
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Re: Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Post by Snake12534 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 10:23 pm

Very good work there AnSqu, I will conduct a test by matching 10 teams using the SQElo and see how accurate it is.

I will report my conclusion here, I might also trying fitting a 3vs2 in there, just to see the accuracy.
retired

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