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Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:25 am
by An SQUERRILz
I did a study and it was good.

Summary of matches at bzbattleground over the last four months:
1.8 official matches per day
46% of matches are 20 minutes
102 unique players have offi'd
Red win rate is 45%, purple is 50% [Slime says purple bullets harder to see]

Quiz: Here are some extra statistics graphs, you have to guess what they are of. Think statistics, things that would be interesting to know and are easy to calculate.

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I made a website http://gu.zapto.org/ to predict the outcome of GU offi and FMs. This is a glimpse of the rating system I created, SQelo (read more background at http://forums.bzflag.org/viewtopic.php? ... 75#p166289). It has scored 67% on over a hundred real matches. If you don't think 67% is very good then I challenge you to take a match prediction quiz. (Consider that draws can't really be predicted, technically you must predict the same thing for the same matchup, many re-matches have different outcomes such that even swaying by 4 caps is common [hint graph], lots of new players who are allergic to photos...)

Re: Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:58 pm
by sn0w_m0nkey
That is some very cool work AS!

Re: Statistics class: summary, quiz and match prediction

Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 10:23 pm
by Snake12534
Very good work there AnSqu, I will conduct a test by matching 10 teams using the SQElo and see how accurate it is.

I will report my conclusion here, I might also trying fitting a 3vs2 in there, just to see the accuracy.